The Prologue Blog

A Blog by Dr. Alexander Mirtchev

  • Episode 7: The Making of a Megatrend – Defense Transformation
    From wind and coal to oil and electricity, energy use in military operations has been a dominant strategic and tactical consideration since ancient times. The invention of the steam and internal combustion engines made warfare significantly more energy-intensive, allowing for rapid movement and maneuvering capabilities by ever-larger motorized military formations. Renewables’ contribution to the reshaping of the global energy mix provides a new perspective from which to consider future risks and the nature and sources of conflict. The 21st-century transformation of defense sectors is prompted by a radical shift in the nature of threats, including widespread technological advances, increasingly asymmetrical …

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  • Episode 6: The Making of a Megatrend – Nuclear, a Possible Roadmap for the Alternative Energy Megatrend
    COP26 once again shined a light on the role of nuclear energy in combating climate change. Disagreement over whether nuclear could be a meaningful part of a post-carbon future remains controversial. On one side, the U.S. announced that it will spend $25 million to help build reactors in Kenya, Brazil, and Indonesia. Russia is pushing for other nations to acknowledge nuclear power plants as environmentally friendly. The Czech Republic, France, and other EU countries announced an “alliance” to promote nuclear energy and natural gas as sustainable investments stating “If Europe is to win the climate war, it needs the nuclear energy.” …

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  • Episode 5: The Making of a Megatrend – Dynamic Security Prioritization
    In Episode 4 I discussed the relationship between the alternative energy megatrend and universal securitization. As a reminder, the security trajectory of the megatrend illustrates the increasingly complex terrain that policymakers must navigate to cope with expanding security threats (e.g., environmental, health, cyber, energy, economic), proving the utility of the framework of universal securitization as a strategic tool with tangible applications. However, broadening the concept of security too far risks making the term meaningless. Simply embracing universal securitization is not enough; it will overwhelm policymakers, leaving the system unworkable. In today’s multi-centric world, dealing with and prevailing in the new …

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  • Making of a Megatrend: Episode 4 – Universal Securitization
    One of the more complex themes in The Prologue: The Alternative Energy Megatrend in the Age of Great Power Competition is the notion of universal securitization. The notion of universal securitization tries to grasp the 21st century’s increasingly interconnected globalized world in transition. This interconnectedness includes ever-multiplying actors with the ability to wield power through securitization, from the UN’s initiatives to address environmental degradation to the new capabilities of states like Germany to determine the economic security policies of the entire EU. At the same time, this interconnectedness implies that securitizing a single issue is impossible without creating spill-over into …

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  • Making of a Megatrend: Episode 3 – Energy Security
    Along with geopolitical empowerment, humanity’s insatiable desire for energy is a major driver of the alternative energy megatrend. It fuels the economy, allows us to travel, keeps us warm (and cool), keeps the lights on and Netflix streaming. The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects that world energy consumption will grow by nearly 50% between 2018 and 2050. For countries, the primary energy security consideration is the ability to obtain secure supplies of energy at reasonable prices. In the context of the alternative energy megatrend, the key questions are: what are – or will be – the primary energy sources and …

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