Alpina Publishing House has released a Russian translation of the highly acclaimed book by the renowned Bulgarian-American scholar Alexander Mirchev, Senior Visiting Professor at the George Mason University School of Politics and Public Administration, which has already been published in four languages. The book is dedicated to the history, current state and prospects of alternative energy (Mirchev Alexander. The Prologue: The Alternative Energy Megatrend in the Age of Great Power Competition, Moscow: Alpina PRO, 2022, 448 pp. – Mirtchev Alexander. The Prologue: The Alternative Energy Megatrend in the Age of Great Power Competition, New York: Simon & Schuster, 2021). In his review of the American edition, Henry Kissinger wrote that “this insightful study of the changing energy landscape looks far into the future and highlights themes that will occupy policymakers and scientists for decades to come.” Describing “mega-trends” has become a popular pastime since the mid-1980s, when researchers drew attention to the rapid change in the familiar world (I will note the pioneering work of Naisbitt, John. Megatrends. Ten New Directions Transforming Our Lives, New York: Warner Books, 1984 and a series of books written by him and his co-authors: Naisbitt, John and Aburdene, Patricia. Megatrends 2000. Ten New Directions For the 1990’s, New York: Avon Books, 1990; Aburdene, Patricia. Megatrends 2010: The Rise of Conscious Capitalism, Charlottesville (Va.): Hampton Roads Publishing Co., 2007, etc.), but traditionally the discussion was about a multitude of significant trends, while Mirchev was one of the first to use the term in the singular.
The book is devoted not only to the formation and development of the new energy model – it evaluates its “fit” into modern geopolitics, and therefore, quite likely, will excite the Russian reader even more than the American or European one. The author’s key concept in this context is “securitization”, which is used, of course, not in the sense that stock market professionals put into this word, but to emphasize the inextricable link between energy problems and security issues (see pp. 23–28), since energy today “affects most, if not all, areas of security in its broad sense” (p. 24). The author emphasizes that although alternative energy is conditioned by the environmental and economic problems of developed countries and the moral imperatives they generate, its development radically affects all societies and states, since globalization makes closed development impossible, and the energy market has a high degree of internationalization. At the same time, the subjectivity of global politics is becoming more complex (see p. 25), which, in fact, turns changes in the energy sector into the only global megatrend that deserves the closest attention.
I will not dwell on the author’s description of the historical part of the issue in detail – I will only note the absolutely correct emphasis on the fact that, in fact, throughout most of history, humanity has met its needs through renewable energy sources (see pp. 58-67). Much more important, in my opinion, is the thesis that in modern conditions the entire Western-centric picture of the world is changing: “In the context of the megatrend of alternative energy, the concept of “core – periphery” goes beyond the traditional dependence between the underdeveloped periphery and the developed core. The megatrend gives reason to talk about a new polycentric or multi-core “geometry” of geopolitics” (p. 80). This “geometry”, however, is determined not only by the availability of resources (yes, even in the era of renewable energy, energy does not appear “out of nowhere”, but is produced using both the latest technologies and traditional materials), but also by the ability of certain countries to correctly identify emerging trends and use all the organizational and technological capabilities available in the modern world to best meet them. Moreover, the author emphasizes that we should no longer only talk about states, but also about commercial companies and even individual visionaries – so much so that alternative energy changes traditional ideas about the circle of actors whose actions should be taken into account (for more details, see: pp. 100-111).
A significant part of the work, as I have already said, is devoted to the energy topic in the context of security – and the author separately considers the mutual influence of these spheres on the largest countries and regions of the world, noting many circumstances important for politicians (for more details, see: pp. 289-316). Speaking in particular about Russia and noting that it has been the least receptive in recent years to the problem of changing the energy paradigm, Mirchev calls its policy an example of “energy imperialism” (see pp. 147, 176; for more details on the concept of such imperialism, see pp. 127-129) (Russian politicians themselves, I remind you, discussed this in the mid-2000s in terms of “energy superpower”) – and emphasizes that Moscow was very seriously frightened by the possibility of turning Europe into a decarbonized economy – probably even more than any possible expansion of NATO. The book, I note, was prepared for publication in Russian long before the current wave of escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict (the preface to the Russian edition is dated November 2021), and this allows us to assess the dynamics of energy processes (the expert says that Moscow, not without reason, believes it is possible to dictate rules to Europe [see p. 302], but today we can already see how this opportunity has largely disappeared). It is worth assuming that in the future, the dynamics of changes in energy hegemony will become even more active.
Analyzing the processes taking place in the modern energy sector, the author introduces the concept of “geoeconomic state management” (see pp. 224 et seq.), calling it “art”. One can fully agree with this, since in the new world of the 21st century, it is impossible to make strategic decisions without calculating trends in the energy sector, without assessing the capabilities of competitors and without taking into account the possible limitations of your own. In my opinion, it is precisely this art of management that will determine the success of states and peoples in the coming decades. Reassessing established and seemingly undoubted advantages is a sure path to trouble.
At the same time, this thesis does not concern only Russia, as it may initially seem. On the contrary, the author emphasizes that, on the one hand, the energy revolution itself should not be considered complete, and the trend toward renewable energy should not be considered finally established (his analysis of the pros and cons of current trends [see pp. 276-288] should be taken into account by both “greens” and convinced supporters of the dominance of a carbonized economy); and, on the other hand, the development of renewable energy does not make the West, which has created the technological and ethical prerequisites for this, the only beneficiary of the “global megatrend.” Mirchev notes not only the already well-known fact that China has today become a leader in the use of renewable energy (see pp. 303-304) and is receiving enormous benefits from the spread of new energy technologies throughout the world, but also that Europe and the United States may well, in the future, having emerged from dependence on fossil fuel suppliers (such as the Persian Gulf countries or Russia), become dependent on other partners who are no less dangerous for them from the point of view of “securitization.”
Clearly, the transition to renewable energy requires new technologies that rely on materials that may prove to be as scarce in the near future as oil and gas were in the late 1970s. At the same time, their distribution around the world is not nearly as even as the “reserves” of solar or wind energy. Looking back, it is worth noting that in the 1970s, the Gulf States, which largely provoked the oil crises of that time, produced two-thirds more oil than the developed OECD member countries (the latter, however, successfully caught up with the former in terms of production in 2017) – but today the emerging imbalances look much more significant. One of the main resources that ensures the functioning of alternative energy is lithium, the reserves of which in China are larger than in all developed countries combined – and in addition, China’s share in the world’s production has grown fourfold over the past seven years. Rare earth metals are no less significant – in them, China’s dominance is even more obvious: it currently accounts for 60% of world production (and if you add here a close ally and practically vassal of the PRC, Myanmar – then more than 70%). At the same time, while Saudi Arabia and the UAE have been passive exporters of crude oil for many years, China is becoming a leader in the production of equipment for alternative energy (it accounts for 97% of the world’s production of semiconductor wafers, 79% of photovoltaic cells and 67% of polycrystalline silicon) and even finished products (58% of the world’s production of electric vehicles), which should raise even more questions if the “new” energy, like the “old”, was perceived through the prism of “securitization”. It is possible that today the Western world, carried away by the “ethically impeccable” doctrine of “green” energy, is becoming dependent on countries that are much more threatening to its geopolitical dominance than OPEC or Russia.
Professor Mirchev did not call his book “Prologue” for nothing: it draws the readers’ attention to the – generally obvious – fact that the “energy transition” may not be an analogue of the optimistic “end of history” that Francis Fukuyama once dreamed of, but a harbinger of its renewal, which many political scientists and futurologists began talking about in the mid-2000s. Yes, we are at that historical moment when countries that parasitized only on their natural resources can no longer dictate terms to their consumers – Russia’s inability to force Europe to accept Moscow’s demands on Ukraine speaks volumes about this. However, this does not mean that the world cannot in the future find itself dependent on even more dangerous powers that combine control over new types of energy resources with a developed and successful industrial sector. This is why, in my opinion, Mirchev does not at all consider the choice of the benchmark for the development of renewable energy throughout the world to be final (see pp. 113-114), and this conclusion should be treated with due attention (although without fanaticism). The author, in my opinion, is right in saying that today the megatrend itself is more significant than its possible results (“ultimately, the campaign for alternative energy itself may turn out to be more important than its actual result” (p. 288).
In conclusion, I would like to say: the book by the American professor undoubtedly represents a deeply-founded study, the results of which must be taken into account by both Western and Russian politicians. I am sure that the Russian edition of the book will find its grateful readers – not least because it represents a brilliant result of the work of translators and editors, who made the Russian text even easier to perceive than the original.