“According to A.Mirtchev, the current “universally securitized world worsens Hobbesian trap, according to which the choice in favour of advanced antagonistic actions is the most rational”. In such a world “it might be beneficial for one state to act against another state within an increasing number of circumstances. … So they more often use the …
As Europe prepares for a “brutal, cold winter,” its inhabitants are belatedly beginning to realize that they heavily rely on Russian gas. According to Goldman Sachs, European households may spend up to €500 a month in 2023 on energy bills. Numerous families may not be able to afford these skyrocketing gas prices, possibly leading to social unrest. But what …
Will Renewables Dominate Great Power Competition? | By Mark Temnycky Read More »
The latest developments in European energy policy confirm that Russia has finally turned from the “reliable energy supplier” the Kremlin insisted it was for decades, into a power that wields its oil and energy export capabilities as a strategic weapon against “unfriendly nations” (the list of which is constantly enlarged). Even the concessions recently made …
The Washington Times: The Looming Energy Trap | By Vladislav Inozemtsev Read More »
Insecurity caused by hydrocarbon supply disruptions will undermine the efforts to shift toward renewable sources of energy. by Kamran Bokhari The West’s response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been hamstrung by Europe’s dependence on Russian natural gas. This is the result of a conscious European strategy to prevent a geopolitical rivalry with Moscow through …
The Abraham Accords between Israel and several Arab states, including the oil-rich countries, further illustrate Israel’s energy centric-foreign policy. For centuries, energy concerns have influenced defense, economics, and the environment. Starting with the British Empire’s decision to found coaling stations to support the imperial navy to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, energy has impacted security decisions …
In the early 2000s, the European Union commissioned a war game from my political risk firm to look at whether its then-current distribution of energy imports made strategic sense. The “Big Three” for European natural gas production were then Russia, Algeria and Norway, in decreasing order of political risk. Unsurprisingly, the outcome of the game …
The Hill: Our changing energy landscape will stretch beyond Europe | By John C. Hulsman Read More »
The war in Ukraine has jolted energy markets— driving oil and gas prices to their highest levels in over a decade and leaving governments scrambling to secure energy supplies. In the months since Russia’s invasion, policymakers have faced a hard truth: energy policy is security policy, and it has been neglected for far too long. …
China’s Wind Power Push Threatens US Strategic Interests | By Ariel Cohen Read More »
One of Mirtchev’s main insights is that the alternative energy megatrend is a socially-constructed phenomenon with significant geopolitical implications. Namely, energy is a geopolitical lever. Russia arrived at the conclusion that it must take advantage of its “energy superiority” before it is lost. Russia can easily be ruined as a great power and marginalized as …
Un nuevo mundo de conflictos | By Vladislav Inozemtsev Read More »
Last week, as anyone following Russia and the war in Ukraine should have seen coming, the Russian government stopped shipments of natural gas to Poland and Bulgaria over payment issues. Following a Putin directive, Russia’s Gazprom – majority-owned by the state – said it would only accept payment in rubles. Italian oil firm Eni is …
Forbes: Why Russia’s Natural Gas Leverage Won’t Last Much Longer | By Kenneth Rapoza Read More »
As discussed in Episode 1, one of the key drivers of the alternative energy megatrend is the potential for it to provide a new means of empowerment. While it gives individuals and civil society a powerful boost, the potential geopolitical leverage derived from winning the technological race to harness (and store!) energy from the sun, …